By: Jim Eichenhofer, Hornets.com
ESPN: The Magazine recently featured Kevin Durant on the cover of its annual “Next” issue, based on the belief that the high-scoring, third-year small forward is one of the most noteworthy up-and-coming athletes in all of sports.
The same could probably be said for Durant’s team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and its future prospects in the Western Conference. While most hoops observers are now beginning to see Durant’s potential as a megastar, an excellent start to this season has also made it harder to overlook the young talent that surrounds him.
The Hornets (16-16) will get their first up-close view of the vastly improved Thunder (19-15) at 7 p.m. Wednesday in the Ford Center, previous home to the Hornets in 2005-06 and 2006-07.
Oklahoma City has won six of its last seven games and is in playoff contention perhaps a year or two ahead of schedule, after going 23-59 last season. The Thunder has four recent top-five overall picks dotting the roster – Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook and rookie James Harden – and all of them have proven to be excellent selections. There may be no team in the NBA with a better young core group than OKC, but the question for 2009-10 may be whether the Thunder can maintain the early-season stellar play over 82 games.
For New Orleans, a victory Wednesday would mean a fourth consecutive win against an above-.500 foe, as the Hornets enter a stretch of their schedule that is considerably easier – at least on paper. After the visit to the Sooner State, New Orleans’ next six games are all against teams that currently have losing records.
Hornets Update
Player-by-player analysis of New Orleans’ current 15-man roster. All statistics are through Monday’s win in Salt Lake City:
STARTERS
Chris Paul: One encouraging sign for the Hornets is that other than during the Denver victory, he has not been required to pile up points in order to keep the Hornets in games lately. Paul scored 20 points or more in eight of the first nine games of the regular season, but has done so just four times in 14 contests since returning from injury Dec. 4.
Devin Brown: In the midst of what may be the best stretch of his career. He entered this season with a career-high of 25 points, but equaled that at the Clippers then surpassed it in Utah with 30. His 42.6 percent accuracy from three-point range is a career-high.
Peja Stojakovic: His FG and three-point percentages are both below 40 for the second straight season, which hadn’t happened previously since his lockout-shortened rookie campaign of 1998-99. The coaching staff vowed in preseason to cut his minutes a bit, and that’s happened. The 12-year pro is at 29.1 minutes per game, lowest for him since his second NBA season.
David West: His recent play has been more in line with what he's produced over the previous four seasons, which included consecutive All-Star berths. Like his fellow starting forward, West’s minutes are down noticeably, at 35.4 (he logged 39.2 last season).
Emeka Okafor: Recent surge has him averaging a double-double again on the season. He’s averaged 11.3 points and 12.7 rebounds during the current three-game win streak.
RESERVES
Darius Songaila: The most consistent sub on the team, he’s been like clockwork lately, including a recent five-game stretch when he scored 6, 8, 8, 6 and 8 points.
James Posey: Reliance on three-pointers has continued to climb this season, with 68 percent of his shots coming from beyond the arc. In 2008-09, that figure was 60 percent.
Darren Collison: Does playing time affect ballhandling? His assist-to-turnover ratio as a starter was 2.13 to 1; as a reserve it’s 1.75. He’s committed the exact same number of turnovers (24) in 20 games coming off the bench as he did in his eight starts in place of Paul.
Julian Wright: Back in the rotation for the past six games, he’s averaged 6.0 minutes during the three-game win streak.
Morris Peterson: Made his first game appearance since Nov. 25 at Utah on Monday night, taking over the backup shooting guard spot.
Marcus Thornton: With Peterson logging minutes at the 2 in Utah, the LSU rookie’s DNP was his first since Nov. 4.
Bobby Brown: His eight points in 14 minutes to help beat Golden State on Dec. 23 was his top highlight over the past six weeks or so. He’s appeared in four games since Dec. 1.
Hilton Armstrong: In the midst of the lengthiest stretch of inactivity in his four-year career. With Songaila eating up all of the minutes at backup center, no other NOLA backup big has received playing time lately.
Sean Marks: After missing time with a shoulder injury, now a calf injury means he may be out for another month.
Ike Diogu: Out for the season after undergoing successful microfracture knee surgery. He's an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Monday, January 4, 2010
Hornets.com postgame: Hornets 91, Jazz 87
By: Jim Eichenhofer, Hornets.com
There have been a handful of wins against top-notch competition over the first two months of this season for the Hornets, but tonight’s victory in Utah may have been their most significant of all of them. New Orleans (16-16) reached .500 for the first time since it was 1-1, posted its first road triumph against an opponent with a winning record, and prevailed in a venue where the Hornets had lost six straight mostly one-sided games.
“We needed a win. This was a big win,” said Hornets guard Devin Brown, who deposited a career-high 30 points, highlighted by 5-for-8 shooting from three-point range. “We’ve been working very hard in practice trying to clear some things up, and it showed today. We got stops when we needed to, and that’s the way we have to play the rest of the year.”
While Brown’s offense was a major reason the Hornets were able to dig out of an early hole, once New Orleans took the lead over Utah (18-16), it was the defense that paved the way to the team’s third road win (the previous away victories were at Minnesota and the L.A. Clippers). After allowing 32 Jazz points in the first quarter, the hosts only mustered a total of 30 in the next two periods.
Other notes from tonight, the first half of a two-game road trip that concludes Wednesday in Oklahoma City:
• By Chris Paul standards, it was another struggle against Utah, but he also came up with several critical plays to help seal the win in the fourth quarter. Leading by four with about 45 seconds left, Paul broke up a 2-on-1 Utah fast break with a tremendous steal of a Deron Williams bounce pass, the most important play of the game. Paul dropped in a layup to make it 88-82 at 27 seconds.
• Morris Peterson was elevated into the rotation, in place of Marcus Thornton, at backup shooting guard. Peterson had sat out the previous 11 games, so this was his first game action since Nov. 25 vs. Milwaukee. The 6-foot-7 veteran was 1-for-3 shooting, all three-pointers.
There have been a handful of wins against top-notch competition over the first two months of this season for the Hornets, but tonight’s victory in Utah may have been their most significant of all of them. New Orleans (16-16) reached .500 for the first time since it was 1-1, posted its first road triumph against an opponent with a winning record, and prevailed in a venue where the Hornets had lost six straight mostly one-sided games.
“We needed a win. This was a big win,” said Hornets guard Devin Brown, who deposited a career-high 30 points, highlighted by 5-for-8 shooting from three-point range. “We’ve been working very hard in practice trying to clear some things up, and it showed today. We got stops when we needed to, and that’s the way we have to play the rest of the year.”
While Brown’s offense was a major reason the Hornets were able to dig out of an early hole, once New Orleans took the lead over Utah (18-16), it was the defense that paved the way to the team’s third road win (the previous away victories were at Minnesota and the L.A. Clippers). After allowing 32 Jazz points in the first quarter, the hosts only mustered a total of 30 in the next two periods.
Other notes from tonight, the first half of a two-game road trip that concludes Wednesday in Oklahoma City:
• By Chris Paul standards, it was another struggle against Utah, but he also came up with several critical plays to help seal the win in the fourth quarter. Leading by four with about 45 seconds left, Paul broke up a 2-on-1 Utah fast break with a tremendous steal of a Deron Williams bounce pass, the most important play of the game. Paul dropped in a layup to make it 88-82 at 27 seconds.
• Morris Peterson was elevated into the rotation, in place of Marcus Thornton, at backup shooting guard. Peterson had sat out the previous 11 games, so this was his first game action since Nov. 25 vs. Milwaukee. The 6-foot-7 veteran was 1-for-3 shooting, all three-pointers.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Hornets seeking better results in Utah
By: Jim Eichenhofer, Hornets.com
The Utah Jazz and New Orleans Hornets entered 2009-10 with similar outside expectations – both teams were projected by most analysts to vie for a lower playoff seed in the rugged Western Conference. Two months into the season, the clubs have similar records, with the Jazz (18-15) just two games ahead of the Hornets (15-16) in the standings.
So why is it then, while discussing Monday’s game in Salt Lake City, the Hornets seem like they’re about to face the 72-win Bulls team that featured Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen?
“I know it sounds crazy, but I think we just have to stay in the game for the first three quarters and give ourselves a chance to win it in the fourth quarter,” Hornets guard Devin Brown said of tomorrow’s 8 p.m. game at EnergySolutions Arena. “We haven’t done that at times. If we can somehow stay in that game, let’s just see how we do in the fourth quarter.”
The outcomes of recent Hornets-Jazz matchups demonstrate why accomplishing that modest goal would actually represent progress for New Orleans against its biggest nemesis. Utah has won eight of the last nine overall games against New Orleans, prevailing each time by double digits. The Hornets’ last victory in the Beehive State came in 2005-06, Chris Paul’s rookie season. Since then, New Orleans is 0-6 at Utah, losing by a staggering average margin of 20.7 points.
While the constant comparisons and questions about his “rivalry” with friend Deron Williams probably grew tiresome for Paul years ago, he now fields queries about why the Hornets can’t seem to beat the Jazz.
“I don’t know,” Paul said after Saturday's win over Houston, when asked why New Orleans has struggled against Utah. “Like I always say, this league is all about matchups. You wonder why the past couple years the Bobcats have been beating the Lakers, and things like that. Utah is one of those teams we’ve had trouble with. They’re a physical, aggressive team. We’re going to have to match their intensity.”
“I think we get caught up in playing their style sometimes, and that isn’t necessarily our strength,” David West said. “We know Utah is one of the tougher places to play in the league. We’ve just got to stick to what we do and hopefully come out with a win.”
The Utah Jazz and New Orleans Hornets entered 2009-10 with similar outside expectations – both teams were projected by most analysts to vie for a lower playoff seed in the rugged Western Conference. Two months into the season, the clubs have similar records, with the Jazz (18-15) just two games ahead of the Hornets (15-16) in the standings.
So why is it then, while discussing Monday’s game in Salt Lake City, the Hornets seem like they’re about to face the 72-win Bulls team that featured Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen?
“I know it sounds crazy, but I think we just have to stay in the game for the first three quarters and give ourselves a chance to win it in the fourth quarter,” Hornets guard Devin Brown said of tomorrow’s 8 p.m. game at EnergySolutions Arena. “We haven’t done that at times. If we can somehow stay in that game, let’s just see how we do in the fourth quarter.”
The outcomes of recent Hornets-Jazz matchups demonstrate why accomplishing that modest goal would actually represent progress for New Orleans against its biggest nemesis. Utah has won eight of the last nine overall games against New Orleans, prevailing each time by double digits. The Hornets’ last victory in the Beehive State came in 2005-06, Chris Paul’s rookie season. Since then, New Orleans is 0-6 at Utah, losing by a staggering average margin of 20.7 points.
While the constant comparisons and questions about his “rivalry” with friend Deron Williams probably grew tiresome for Paul years ago, he now fields queries about why the Hornets can’t seem to beat the Jazz.
“I don’t know,” Paul said after Saturday's win over Houston, when asked why New Orleans has struggled against Utah. “Like I always say, this league is all about matchups. You wonder why the past couple years the Bobcats have been beating the Lakers, and things like that. Utah is one of those teams we’ve had trouble with. They’re a physical, aggressive team. We’re going to have to match their intensity.”
“I think we get caught up in playing their style sometimes, and that isn’t necessarily our strength,” David West said. “We know Utah is one of the tougher places to play in the league. We’ve just got to stick to what we do and hopefully come out with a win.”
Saturday, January 2, 2010
Hornets.com postgame: Hornets 99, Rockets 95
By: Jim Eichenhofer, Hornets.com
They trailed virtually the entire game. At one stage of the second half, they were down by double digits, against a very good defensive team that doesn’t squander big leads often.
It didn’t matter, because the Hornets were at home. It didn’t matter, because far more often than not, New Orleans prevails in close games. The Hornets, who are 35-18 in one-possession games during Chris Paul’s career, outscored the Rockets by a 28-18 margin in the fourth quarter to inch closer to .500.
New Orleans (15-16) appeared to be on the verge of defeat when it trailed 93-86 with just over two minutes remaining, but James Posey canned a huge three-pointer, followed by Chris Paul’s driving layup for a three-point play and David West’s 17-foot jump shot, making it a 94-93 edge with 47 seconds remaining. Paul added another basket to put the Hornets up 96-93, before Devin Brown and West iced the win by going 3-for-4 at the foul line.
“David West makes a shot, CP makes a shot,” Brown described of the final-minute plays that lifted New Orleans to victory. “Those guys are All-Stars. They live for the final six minutes of every game. That’s what makes you work so hard in the summer, to be ready for moments like that.”
New Orleans held Houston (20-14) to just two points over the final 2:55, and that came on an uncontested layup by Trevor Ariza when the Hornets backed off to avoid fouling and avoid stopping the clock.
“Our defense looked very good in those final three minutes,” Brown said.
“It’s from being decisive,” West said of why he believes the Hornets have been arguably the NBA’s most frequent winner of tight games. “We don’t have guys who shy away from those (important) moments of games. We have a lot of guys who are capable and willing to make big plays, regardless of what’s going on in the game.”
For more from players and coaches on the Houston victory, click on the NEWS/Postgame Quotes tab
They trailed virtually the entire game. At one stage of the second half, they were down by double digits, against a very good defensive team that doesn’t squander big leads often.
It didn’t matter, because the Hornets were at home. It didn’t matter, because far more often than not, New Orleans prevails in close games. The Hornets, who are 35-18 in one-possession games during Chris Paul’s career, outscored the Rockets by a 28-18 margin in the fourth quarter to inch closer to .500.
New Orleans (15-16) appeared to be on the verge of defeat when it trailed 93-86 with just over two minutes remaining, but James Posey canned a huge three-pointer, followed by Chris Paul’s driving layup for a three-point play and David West’s 17-foot jump shot, making it a 94-93 edge with 47 seconds remaining. Paul added another basket to put the Hornets up 96-93, before Devin Brown and West iced the win by going 3-for-4 at the foul line.
“David West makes a shot, CP makes a shot,” Brown described of the final-minute plays that lifted New Orleans to victory. “Those guys are All-Stars. They live for the final six minutes of every game. That’s what makes you work so hard in the summer, to be ready for moments like that.”
New Orleans held Houston (20-14) to just two points over the final 2:55, and that came on an uncontested layup by Trevor Ariza when the Hornets backed off to avoid fouling and avoid stopping the clock.
“Our defense looked very good in those final three minutes,” Brown said.
“It’s from being decisive,” West said of why he believes the Hornets have been arguably the NBA’s most frequent winner of tight games. “We don’t have guys who shy away from those (important) moments of games. We have a lot of guys who are capable and willing to make big plays, regardless of what’s going on in the game.”
For more from players and coaches on the Houston victory, click on the NEWS/Postgame Quotes tab
Friday, January 1, 2010
January begins with three West tests
By: Jim Eichenhofer, Hornets.com
Currently 11th in the Western Conference standings and three games behind a pair of teams tied for eighth, New Orleans (14-16) enters a hectic January slate that includes more total games (17) and road contests (11) than any other month of its 2009-10 schedule. By the time this month is over, the Hornets will have played 47 games, meaning the next 30 days could be a make-or-break stretch.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s in store for New Orleans in January, a month in which the Hornets will either turn around their poor road performance (where they’re 2-13) or drop further back in their pursuit of several conference rivals.
WEST TESTS
Saturday, Jan. 2 vs. Houston (20-13 entering January)
Monday, Jan. 4 at Utah (18-14)
Wednesday, Jan. 6 at Oklahoma City (18-14)
Games against the Rockets, Jazz and Thunder provide the Hornets with a chance to gain ground on three of the teams ahead of them in the standings. At the moment, that trio holds slots 7-9 in the West (Memphis is 10th).
Houston and OKC are two of the NBA’s biggest surprises through the first two months. Recent games against Utah have been particularly painful for New Orleans, which hasn’t won in Salt Lake City since 2005-06, Chris Paul’s rookie year. One unusual aspect of 2009-10 so far for the Hornets: They’ve actually performed significantly better against the West (10-8) than vs. the inferior East (4-8).
SIX SUB-.500 FOES
Friday, Jan. 8 vs. New Jersey (3-29)
Sunday, Jan. 10 at Washington (10-20)
Monday, Jan. 11 at Philadelphia (9-23)
Wednesday, Jan. 13 vs. L.A. Clippers (14-18)
Friday, Jan. 15 at Detroit (11-21)
Saturday, Jan. 16 at Indiana (9-22)
On paper, this nine-day stretch would seem to be an optimum opportunity for the Hornets to make some headway in the standings. The 76ers have begun to show signs of life recently with road wins at Portland and Sacramento, while the Clippers knocked off Boston early this week.
The other four clubs in this group are all currently headed in the wrong direction, combining to go 16-45 in December. The Pistons have lost nine games in a row; the Pacers are on an eight-game losing streak.
BRIEF DIVISIONAL HOMESTAND
Monday, Jan. 18 vs. San Antonio (19-11)
Wednesday, Jan. 20 vs. Memphis (15-16)
The Hornets’ schedule has been unusually light on Southwest Division games so far, with only four in-division matchups out of 30 overall games. New Orleans is 1-3 in its division, losing to San Antonio and Houston, but splitting with Dallas. The Jan. 20 game will be the first meeting against the Grizzlies, who have stunned everyone around the NBA by playing near .500 ball. Memphis is 14-8 since its 1-8 start and the release of Allen Iverson.
FOUR-GAME, SIX-DAY ROAD TRIP
Friday, Jan. 22 at Minnesota (7-26)
Saturday, Jan. 23 at Denver (20-12)
Monday, Jan. 25 at Portland (21-13)
Wednesday, Jan. 27 at Golden State (9-22)
The second-longest trek of the season for the Hornets will hit three different time zones over its first four days. The start and close to the trip are against the two teams with the worst records in the Western Conference, though the Warriors posted impressive back-to-back wins this week against Phoenix and Boston.
Denver has begun to feel the effects of not having Chauncey Billups available to play. Starting with the Nuggets’ Dec. 18 loss in NOLA, they’ve gone just 1-5 and come back to the crowded pack in the West. Billups only played in one of those games, a Dec. 25 loss at Portland. The Trail Blazers’ roster has been ravaged by injuries, but they’ve withstood the bad luck with a 7-2 mark since Dec. 15.
BACK-TO-BACK ENDS MONTH
Friday, Jan. 29 vs. Chicago (13-17)
Saturday, Jan. 30 at Memphis (15-16)
This is the Hornets’ third back-to-back set of January, with each taking place on a Friday and Saturday. The Bulls got off to another customary slow start this season, but they’ve played very well since the return of Tyrus Thomas from injury. Chicago is 5-2 since Dec. 17 (one of those two losses was Sacramento’s comeback from a 35-point deficit at the United Center on Dec. 21).
Even when Memphis has fielded non-competitive teams in recent seasons, the Grizzlies have given the Hornets fits at FedEx Forum. Memphis is much improved overall this season, as well as 10-5 at home. The Grizzlies beat Dallas, Cleveland and Denver in Tennessee during the month of December.
Currently 11th in the Western Conference standings and three games behind a pair of teams tied for eighth, New Orleans (14-16) enters a hectic January slate that includes more total games (17) and road contests (11) than any other month of its 2009-10 schedule. By the time this month is over, the Hornets will have played 47 games, meaning the next 30 days could be a make-or-break stretch.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s in store for New Orleans in January, a month in which the Hornets will either turn around their poor road performance (where they’re 2-13) or drop further back in their pursuit of several conference rivals.
WEST TESTS
Saturday, Jan. 2 vs. Houston (20-13 entering January)
Monday, Jan. 4 at Utah (18-14)
Wednesday, Jan. 6 at Oklahoma City (18-14)
Games against the Rockets, Jazz and Thunder provide the Hornets with a chance to gain ground on three of the teams ahead of them in the standings. At the moment, that trio holds slots 7-9 in the West (Memphis is 10th).
Houston and OKC are two of the NBA’s biggest surprises through the first two months. Recent games against Utah have been particularly painful for New Orleans, which hasn’t won in Salt Lake City since 2005-06, Chris Paul’s rookie year. One unusual aspect of 2009-10 so far for the Hornets: They’ve actually performed significantly better against the West (10-8) than vs. the inferior East (4-8).
SIX SUB-.500 FOES
Friday, Jan. 8 vs. New Jersey (3-29)
Sunday, Jan. 10 at Washington (10-20)
Monday, Jan. 11 at Philadelphia (9-23)
Wednesday, Jan. 13 vs. L.A. Clippers (14-18)
Friday, Jan. 15 at Detroit (11-21)
Saturday, Jan. 16 at Indiana (9-22)
On paper, this nine-day stretch would seem to be an optimum opportunity for the Hornets to make some headway in the standings. The 76ers have begun to show signs of life recently with road wins at Portland and Sacramento, while the Clippers knocked off Boston early this week.
The other four clubs in this group are all currently headed in the wrong direction, combining to go 16-45 in December. The Pistons have lost nine games in a row; the Pacers are on an eight-game losing streak.
BRIEF DIVISIONAL HOMESTAND
Monday, Jan. 18 vs. San Antonio (19-11)
Wednesday, Jan. 20 vs. Memphis (15-16)
The Hornets’ schedule has been unusually light on Southwest Division games so far, with only four in-division matchups out of 30 overall games. New Orleans is 1-3 in its division, losing to San Antonio and Houston, but splitting with Dallas. The Jan. 20 game will be the first meeting against the Grizzlies, who have stunned everyone around the NBA by playing near .500 ball. Memphis is 14-8 since its 1-8 start and the release of Allen Iverson.
FOUR-GAME, SIX-DAY ROAD TRIP
Friday, Jan. 22 at Minnesota (7-26)
Saturday, Jan. 23 at Denver (20-12)
Monday, Jan. 25 at Portland (21-13)
Wednesday, Jan. 27 at Golden State (9-22)
The second-longest trek of the season for the Hornets will hit three different time zones over its first four days. The start and close to the trip are against the two teams with the worst records in the Western Conference, though the Warriors posted impressive back-to-back wins this week against Phoenix and Boston.
Denver has begun to feel the effects of not having Chauncey Billups available to play. Starting with the Nuggets’ Dec. 18 loss in NOLA, they’ve gone just 1-5 and come back to the crowded pack in the West. Billups only played in one of those games, a Dec. 25 loss at Portland. The Trail Blazers’ roster has been ravaged by injuries, but they’ve withstood the bad luck with a 7-2 mark since Dec. 15.
BACK-TO-BACK ENDS MONTH
Friday, Jan. 29 vs. Chicago (13-17)
Saturday, Jan. 30 at Memphis (15-16)
This is the Hornets’ third back-to-back set of January, with each taking place on a Friday and Saturday. The Bulls got off to another customary slow start this season, but they’ve played very well since the return of Tyrus Thomas from injury. Chicago is 5-2 since Dec. 17 (one of those two losses was Sacramento’s comeback from a 35-point deficit at the United Center on Dec. 21).
Even when Memphis has fielded non-competitive teams in recent seasons, the Grizzlies have given the Hornets fits at FedEx Forum. Memphis is much improved overall this season, as well as 10-5 at home. The Grizzlies beat Dallas, Cleveland and Denver in Tennessee during the month of December.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Why are the Hornets so successful in close games?
By: Jim Eichenhofer, Hornets.com
ESPN.com writer John Hollinger, pro basketball’s preeminent statistical analyst, theorizes that when an NBA team wins a large portion of its close games during a given season, it’s incorrect to assume that the club’s success in the “clutch” is the result of savvy players or brilliant coaching strategy. The reason for Hollinger’s theory? Generally speaking, if you examine the historical data – as Hollinger has – NBA teams that compile an excellent record in games decided by three points or less during a given season tend not to sustain that close-game success rate in the ensuing seasons.
In other words, as Hollinger theorizes, if winning close games was the result of something other than luck, why wouldn’t the same teams finish with great records in one-possession games year after year? They don’t.
As a result, many basketball number-crunchers instead believe that whether or not an NBA team wins its nail-biters is actually dictated more by randomness and good or bad bounces, rather than something tangible or explainable. While I don’t doubt the validity of Hollinger’s argument on this subject (he cites an extensive amount of statistical evidence), how do you explain the New Orleans Hornets’ continued uncanny ability to prevail in closely-contested games? Although Wednesday’s 95-91 victory over Miami technically does not fit the statistical definition of a “close game” (because it was not decided by three points or less), it served as yet another example of New Orleans pulling out a victory in a game that could’ve gone either way.
If you go back through the four-plus seasons of the “Chris Paul era” of the franchise, the Hornets have been incredibly effective in close games. They’ve recorded an above-.500 record in games decided by three points or less within each of the five seasons (including a league-best 8-1 in 2008-09 and 3-1 so far this season), for a total record of 35-18. Keep in mind, that 35-18 does not even include several of the Hornets’ numerous overtime victories in which they ended up winning by a margin greater than three points.
New Orleans’ effectiveness in close games applies to an even greater extent to overtime, where the Hornets have gone a staggering 14-3 since Paul joined the Hornets in the 2005 draft. New Orleans also established an all-time NBA record by winning 13 consecutive OT games, from April 2006 through February 2009.
So while Hollinger’s theory about close NBA games may apply to most teams, it’s hard to believe at this stage that New Orleans’ good fortune in tight contests is based purely on luck. After 4 1/2 seasons of sustained and repeated positive results by the Hornets, here are a few factors that seem to contribute to New Orleans winning two-thirds of the time when games come down to the final possession:
1) A flawless decision-maker running the offense.
This one is so obvious it almost goes without saying: Having Paul making the decisions during close games is a huge advantage for the Hornets. As we’ve detailed on Hornets.com in the past, he has one of the best basketball IQs in the league. He always seems to be cognizant of time-and-score situations, something that is evident in how frequently he attempts to give the Hornets 2-for-1 possessions at the end of quarters.
Lately he’s become particularly adept at drawing shooting fouls in situations where he realistically has no business doing so. In the Minnesota game Dec. 4, he drew a three-shot foul on the Wolves’ Ryan Hollins at the end of a quarter, even though Paul was dribbling near the halfcourt line just before time expired. Against the Spurs in March last season, his heads-up play when San Antonio was trying to foul to stop the clock resulted in CP3 getting three free throws instead of two – and the additional charity toss proved to be a killer to the Spurs’ chances in that game. Paul is preternaturally gifted with quickness and athleticism, but at times the most effective weapon he’s had at his disposal has been between his ears.
2) Excellent results at the foul line.
With Paul, David West and Peja Stojakovic, the Hornets have had three of the NBA’s best free-throw shooters for the past four seasons. What makes Paul’s and West’s accuracy even more valuable is that they get to the line frequently. It’s one thing to have a few players on a club shoot over 80 percent from the foul line, but it’s another when those same guys are the ones who attempt a high volume of free throws.
Some teams have no choice but to run plays in crunch time through players who are not good foul shooters (Cleveland’s LeBron James, for example, shot 69.8 percent in 2006-07 before improving in recent seasons; Orlando’s Dwight Howard is a career 60.1 percent foul shooter), but the Hornets have the luxury of knowing that if the opponent decides to hack one of New Orleans’ primary offensive options, the result usually will be two points.
3) Players willing to take critical shots.
Paul, West and Stojakovic have each taken turns drilling game-winning or game-tying shots over the past handful of seasons.
West memorably canned three game-winners in the final seconds of games during the 2005-06 season. Paul was more of a facilitator than a shot-maker during close games early in his career, but since his All-Star debut in 2008, he has been more aggressive offensively when the outcome of games is in doubt.
Stojakovic has twice forced overtime with high-degree-of-difficulty three-pointers against Dallas over the past three seasons. Many people who follow the Hornets point to Stojakovic’s OT-forcing trey vs. the Mavericks as the turning point in New Orleans’ division title-winning 2007-08 season. He’s also hit a few other game-deciding hoops, including a turnaround 20-footer over Amar’e Stoudemire in Phoenix, during that same ’07-08 season.
I’m sure there are a few other possible factors behind why the Hornets perform so well in the clutch. I’d be glad to hear a few of your theories, although I’ve probably covered a lot of ground with this post.
Either way, the next time you hear a fellow fan rue what could have been after a narrow Hornets defeat (such as after their heart-breaking one-point defeat at Miami in November), remember this: They actually win a whole lot more of those kinds of games than they lose.
ESPN.com writer John Hollinger, pro basketball’s preeminent statistical analyst, theorizes that when an NBA team wins a large portion of its close games during a given season, it’s incorrect to assume that the club’s success in the “clutch” is the result of savvy players or brilliant coaching strategy. The reason for Hollinger’s theory? Generally speaking, if you examine the historical data – as Hollinger has – NBA teams that compile an excellent record in games decided by three points or less during a given season tend not to sustain that close-game success rate in the ensuing seasons.
In other words, as Hollinger theorizes, if winning close games was the result of something other than luck, why wouldn’t the same teams finish with great records in one-possession games year after year? They don’t.
As a result, many basketball number-crunchers instead believe that whether or not an NBA team wins its nail-biters is actually dictated more by randomness and good or bad bounces, rather than something tangible or explainable. While I don’t doubt the validity of Hollinger’s argument on this subject (he cites an extensive amount of statistical evidence), how do you explain the New Orleans Hornets’ continued uncanny ability to prevail in closely-contested games? Although Wednesday’s 95-91 victory over Miami technically does not fit the statistical definition of a “close game” (because it was not decided by three points or less), it served as yet another example of New Orleans pulling out a victory in a game that could’ve gone either way.
If you go back through the four-plus seasons of the “Chris Paul era” of the franchise, the Hornets have been incredibly effective in close games. They’ve recorded an above-.500 record in games decided by three points or less within each of the five seasons (including a league-best 8-1 in 2008-09 and 3-1 so far this season), for a total record of 35-18. Keep in mind, that 35-18 does not even include several of the Hornets’ numerous overtime victories in which they ended up winning by a margin greater than three points.
New Orleans’ effectiveness in close games applies to an even greater extent to overtime, where the Hornets have gone a staggering 14-3 since Paul joined the Hornets in the 2005 draft. New Orleans also established an all-time NBA record by winning 13 consecutive OT games, from April 2006 through February 2009.
So while Hollinger’s theory about close NBA games may apply to most teams, it’s hard to believe at this stage that New Orleans’ good fortune in tight contests is based purely on luck. After 4 1/2 seasons of sustained and repeated positive results by the Hornets, here are a few factors that seem to contribute to New Orleans winning two-thirds of the time when games come down to the final possession:
1) A flawless decision-maker running the offense.
This one is so obvious it almost goes without saying: Having Paul making the decisions during close games is a huge advantage for the Hornets. As we’ve detailed on Hornets.com in the past, he has one of the best basketball IQs in the league. He always seems to be cognizant of time-and-score situations, something that is evident in how frequently he attempts to give the Hornets 2-for-1 possessions at the end of quarters.
Lately he’s become particularly adept at drawing shooting fouls in situations where he realistically has no business doing so. In the Minnesota game Dec. 4, he drew a three-shot foul on the Wolves’ Ryan Hollins at the end of a quarter, even though Paul was dribbling near the halfcourt line just before time expired. Against the Spurs in March last season, his heads-up play when San Antonio was trying to foul to stop the clock resulted in CP3 getting three free throws instead of two – and the additional charity toss proved to be a killer to the Spurs’ chances in that game. Paul is preternaturally gifted with quickness and athleticism, but at times the most effective weapon he’s had at his disposal has been between his ears.
2) Excellent results at the foul line.
With Paul, David West and Peja Stojakovic, the Hornets have had three of the NBA’s best free-throw shooters for the past four seasons. What makes Paul’s and West’s accuracy even more valuable is that they get to the line frequently. It’s one thing to have a few players on a club shoot over 80 percent from the foul line, but it’s another when those same guys are the ones who attempt a high volume of free throws.
Some teams have no choice but to run plays in crunch time through players who are not good foul shooters (Cleveland’s LeBron James, for example, shot 69.8 percent in 2006-07 before improving in recent seasons; Orlando’s Dwight Howard is a career 60.1 percent foul shooter), but the Hornets have the luxury of knowing that if the opponent decides to hack one of New Orleans’ primary offensive options, the result usually will be two points.
3) Players willing to take critical shots.
Paul, West and Stojakovic have each taken turns drilling game-winning or game-tying shots over the past handful of seasons.
West memorably canned three game-winners in the final seconds of games during the 2005-06 season. Paul was more of a facilitator than a shot-maker during close games early in his career, but since his All-Star debut in 2008, he has been more aggressive offensively when the outcome of games is in doubt.
Stojakovic has twice forced overtime with high-degree-of-difficulty three-pointers against Dallas over the past three seasons. Many people who follow the Hornets point to Stojakovic’s OT-forcing trey vs. the Mavericks as the turning point in New Orleans’ division title-winning 2007-08 season. He’s also hit a few other game-deciding hoops, including a turnaround 20-footer over Amar’e Stoudemire in Phoenix, during that same ’07-08 season.
I’m sure there are a few other possible factors behind why the Hornets perform so well in the clutch. I’d be glad to hear a few of your theories, although I’ve probably covered a lot of ground with this post.
Either way, the next time you hear a fellow fan rue what could have been after a narrow Hornets defeat (such as after their heart-breaking one-point defeat at Miami in November), remember this: They actually win a whole lot more of those kinds of games than they lose.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Hornets.com postgame: Hornets 95, Heat 91
By: Jim Eichenhofer, Hornets.com
With a road-heavy schedule coming up in January, the Hornets absolutely must continue their winning ways at home if they hope to finally reach what’s been a very elusive .500 mark. Despite a valiant comeback attempt by the Heat, the Hornets held on for another win in the Hive.
New Orleans led 73-59 entering the final period, but Miami rallied back to grab an 88-87 edge with 59 seconds remaining. From there, David West scored six straight points to enable the Hornets to improve to an excellent 12-3 record at home. New Orleans (14-16 overall) is just 2-13 on the road, however, and will have 11 of its 17 games in January away from the Big Easy. The Hornets have had three chances since Dec. 11 to climb back to .500, but lost each time, to New York, Toronto and Chicago.
“I think the majority of teams in the NBA have a difference between their home record and road record,” Hornets coach Jeff Bower said. “Ours is extreme. It’s something where when we get it solved and in balance, you’ll see a real benefit from that… but tonight I’d like to focus on the success we’ve had at home. That’s a great thing, to have a homecourt (advantage) like this and demonstrate success on it.”
"We're trying to do whatever we can to try to play this way in our road games," said Devin Brown, solid again with 16 points. "Next month we have a lot of home games. So we're going to have to get better at it."
For additional quotes, click on the NEWS/Postgame Quotes page of Hornets.com
With a road-heavy schedule coming up in January, the Hornets absolutely must continue their winning ways at home if they hope to finally reach what’s been a very elusive .500 mark. Despite a valiant comeback attempt by the Heat, the Hornets held on for another win in the Hive.
New Orleans led 73-59 entering the final period, but Miami rallied back to grab an 88-87 edge with 59 seconds remaining. From there, David West scored six straight points to enable the Hornets to improve to an excellent 12-3 record at home. New Orleans (14-16 overall) is just 2-13 on the road, however, and will have 11 of its 17 games in January away from the Big Easy. The Hornets have had three chances since Dec. 11 to climb back to .500, but lost each time, to New York, Toronto and Chicago.
“I think the majority of teams in the NBA have a difference between their home record and road record,” Hornets coach Jeff Bower said. “Ours is extreme. It’s something where when we get it solved and in balance, you’ll see a real benefit from that… but tonight I’d like to focus on the success we’ve had at home. That’s a great thing, to have a homecourt (advantage) like this and demonstrate success on it.”
"We're trying to do whatever we can to try to play this way in our road games," said Devin Brown, solid again with 16 points. "Next month we have a lot of home games. So we're going to have to get better at it."
For additional quotes, click on the NEWS/Postgame Quotes page of Hornets.com
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